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Re: PML where it begin

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One of the early references to "Probable Maximum Loss" ( PML) is the book
"Earthquake, Vocanoes, and Tsunamis, An Anatomy of Hazards" by Karl V.
Steinbrugge, 1982, Skandia America Group, 280 Park Avenuie, New York, N.Y.
10017 USA, Chapter 9, "Probable Maximum Loss."

The following is taken from Chapter 9, "Probable Maximum Loss":
"The PML concept used herein was originated by Harold M. Engle, Sr.  It was
developed by the author and his colleagues in their studies for the insurance
industry and government (U.S. Geological Survey and California Department of
Insurance).  Revevant portions of it are presented here in a simplified form."

"The probable maximum loss for an individual building is that monetary loss
expressed in dollars (or as a percentage of insured value) under the following

1. Located on firm alluvial ground or on equivalent compacted man-made fills
in a  probable maximum loss zone (defined in the next section), and

2. Subjected only to vibratory motion from the maximum probable earthquake,
that is, not astride a fault or a resulting landslide."

"The building class probable maximum loss (class PML) is defined as the
expected maximum percentage monetary loss which will not be exceeded for 9 out
of 10 buildings in a given earthquake building class under the conditions
stated in the previous paragraph." 

Contact Harold Engle, Jr., P.O. Box 1179, Ross, Ca, 9457-1179, Telephone 415-
455-8590, FAX 415-455-8592, no known email address, for additional

Frank E. McClure    FEMCCLURE(--nospam--at)