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Re: risk analysis Probable Maximum Loss (PML's)

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Dennis Wish,

The correct spelling of his name is "Ted Zsutty".  He is a retired professor 
of structural and earthquake engineering from San Jose State University.

His paper in the SEAONC "Seismic Risk Analysis: Probable Maximum Loss and 
Related Topics" 1999 Spring Seminar, March 11 & 18, 1999, is very well 
written and should be in everyone's library if you are doing PML's.  Contact 
Grace Lee, SEAONC, E-mail: seaonc(--nospam--at)ix.netcom.com to obtain information on how 
to obtain a copy of these seminar notes and their cost.  These notes are over 
1" thick and are presented in a nice binder.

There is a whole new "cottage" industry out there preparing PML reports.  
There is even an "ASTM Standard Guide for Estimation of Building 
Damageability in Earthquakes"  This ASTM Standard is discussed in the seminar 
notes in a paper by Charles C. Thiel, Jr. and Gary S. Varum.

Degenkolb Engineers and Risk Engineering, Inc. have developed software , 
"ST-Risk", for a license fee of $ 2,500 per year that allows even 
"Non-Engineers" to prepare their own PML's, without even seeing the 
buildings, given their Construction Type, Year Built, Location, Occupancy and 
Square Footage.  Contact Janiele Maffei at Degenkolb Engineers at telephone 
(415) 392 - 6952, E-mail address (not really sure) jamaffei(--nospam--at)degenkolb.com.  
No, she is not my daughter-in-law,  I did not get my free copy (yet) of 
"ST-Risk" and have never used it.

There are some possible professional liability issues related to prepare 
PML's.
If some one prepares a PML and an owner purchase earthquake insurance based 
on the estimated dollar loss from the PML study and the actual loss is 
greater than the estimated dollar loss from the PML study would the owner 
have a valid cause of action to sue the person who prepared the PML because 
the loss was greater than the PML value.  Or on the other side of the coin, 
if the owner purchased earthquake insurance based on the estimated dollar 
loss from the PML study and the loss was less than the estimated PML dollar 
loss would the owner have a valid cause of action to sue the person who 
prepared the PML for the cost of the excessive earthquake insurance premiums 
for coverage greater than the actual loss.


Frank E. McClure     FEMCCLURE(--nospam--at)aol.com      June 16, 1999