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Bolt Head Pull Through

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OK here's an interesting one for your forensic fancies. 
 
I'm looking at a failed connection, fab'd from a 1/4" plate, probably A36, welded to a 1/2-round piece of pipe (Sch80).  5/8" dia 316SS hex head bolt (no washer) pulled neatly through the 11/16" dia hole.  Very nice, uniform curling down of the steel all around the hole which enlarged it enough for the bolt to slip through.  This was repeated 2 times each support on about 16 supports all around a tank.  The bolt did not fail, and does not visually appear to have bent/sheared/necked down.
 
I shudder at estimating based on energy methods applied to the deflected shape.  Anyone know of an empirical or analytical report to aid in determining what the force was at pull-through? 
 
Laurence B. Oeth PE