To: conrad(--nospam--at)karren.com, seaint(--nospam--at)seaint.org
Subject: Re: Snow load in combination with seismic.
Date: Thu, 7 Jun 2001 01:19:56 EDT
I'm no statistician, but I doubt that the probability of this happening is
About 30 years ago a floating bridge in the Seattle area was sunk by a
combination of wind speed, wind direction (straight down the very long and
narrow Hood Canal), state of the tide, etc. If any of these factors had not
occurred in the manner they did the bridge would not have been flooded and
sunk. The probability of their combination in the required manner is
"probably" very small, but it happened.
I'd be wary of considering unlikely events impossible.
Remember that kid who threw the basketball the length of the court and won $1
million? What were the chances of that?
Ralph Hueston Kratz, S.E.
Richmond CA USA
In a message dated 6/6/01 3:11:37 PM, conrad(--nospam--at)karren.com writes:
<< 100% of snow in combination with seismic? Good Grief!! The probability
of having full snow load at the same time as a design seismic event is
somewhere between slim and none. >>
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