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CALI- dbl check those calcs!

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Even though most of you will be sipping margaritas on the beach or playing
checkers in the park by then....
Study: Big quake likely to rock Bay area by 2033
Wednesday, April 23, 2003 Posted: 9:48 AM EDT (1348 GMT)

BERKELEY, California (AP) -- A federal study slightly reduced the chance
that the San Francisco Bay area will be hit by a major earthquake in the
next 30 years, but still put the probability at better than 50 percent.
The study, commissioned by the U.S. Geological Survey, set the probability
of such a quake at 62 percent. The last time the survey was conducted, in
1999, the estimate was 70 percent. A major quake has a magnitude of 6.7 or
David Schwartz, co-author of the study, which was released Tuesday, noted
that area residents face a greater chance of experiencing a significant
quake than being affected by such well-publicized threats as anthrax.
"The things we face every day -- when we turn on the TV, or read the
newspaper -- in many ways will never touch us," Schwartz, head of the USGS
San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Hazards project. "But living in this
region, earthquakes will affect us. Earthquakes are going to happen."
Schwartz presented the research during a public lecture at the University of
California, Berkeley.
The Bay Area's last major earthquake, with a magnitude of 6.9, occurred in
1989. Centered 50 miles south of San Francisco, the quake killed 40 people
and caused about $6 billion in structural damage.

Andrew D. Kester, EI
Structural Engineer
Bentley Architects & Engineers
665 W. Warren Ave.
Longwood, FL 32750

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