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RE: CALI- dbl check those calcs!

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OH NO NO NO NO NO NO

Now all of my 2% & 10% chance in 50 years spectral maps are way too
conservative !!! Throw away all of your IBC books and CD's !!! CA Will
never adopt it now that it yields even lower base shears than the UBC in
some places in the state.

This is all fooey. They have been predicting this crap since I was a
kid. Saying 60% chance in the next thirty years - 20 years ago. When the
loma prietta eq happened in 89, I remember all the USGS guys on TV
saying this was not considered a major quake. They considered a major
quake something like 7.5 Richter or higher. When they can give me 10
minutes notice that an earthquake is coming, then maybe I'll value the
info.

I put little stock in these as should everyone else. A waste of taxpayer
money. All we know is a big earthquake will happen one day and prepare
for it the best we can. 

I argue with Soils engineers who say fault locations on their software
are in different places than published maps. Northridge EQ occurred on
an unknown fault. They should focus on finding fault lines and
determining the maximum slip potential, not predictions that are about
as concrete as the probability studies behind the rho factor in the UBC
(sorry - had to squeeze that one in :>)

I put as much stock in my local palm reader.

-gerard
Santa Clara, CA


-----Original Message-----
From: Andrew D. Kester [mailto:andrew(--nospam--at)baeonline.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2003 10:12 AM
To: SE Web List (E-mail)
Subject: CALI- dbl check those calcs!

Even though most of you will be sipping margaritas on the beach or
playing
checkers in the park by then....
Study: Big quake likely to rock Bay area by 2033
Wednesday, April 23, 2003 Posted: 9:48 AM EDT (1348 GMT)

BERKELEY, California (AP) -- A federal study slightly reduced the chance
that the San Francisco Bay area will be hit by a major earthquake in the
next 30 years, but still put the probability at better than 50 percent.
The study, commissioned by the U.S. Geological Survey, set the
probability
of such a quake at 62 percent. The last time the survey was conducted,
in
1999, the estimate was 70 percent. A major quake has a magnitude of 6.7
or
greater.
David Schwartz, co-author of the study, which was released Tuesday,
noted
that area residents face a greater chance of experiencing a significant
quake than being affected by such well-publicized threats as anthrax.
"The things we face every day -- when we turn on the TV, or read the
newspaper -- in many ways will never touch us," Schwartz, head of the
USGS
San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Hazards project. "But living in this
region, earthquakes will affect us. Earthquakes are going to happen."
Schwartz presented the research during a public lecture at the
University of
California, Berkeley.
The Bay Area's last major earthquake, with a magnitude of 6.9, occurred
in
1989. Centered 50 miles south of San Francisco, the quake killed 40
people
and caused about $6 billion in structural damage.













Andrew D. Kester, EI
Structural Engineer
Bentley Architects & Engineers
665 W. Warren Ave.
Longwood, FL 32750
1-407-331-6116
andrew(--nospam--at)baeonline.com
www.baeonline.com




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