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RE: Is Everyone Present And Accounted For?----[Choices]

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If all of the flood control projects ever proposed for New Orleans during Clinton or Bush's administration were designed, funded, and constructed, New Orleans would have still flooded. No one ever proposed designing for a tidal surge of a Category 5 for New Orleans. I have designed facilities for a Category 5. FERC requires it for LNG tanks. To call it robust is to damn with faint praise.

What are the probabilities of a terrorist striking another high rise building? Do we want to design all high rises for an airliner impact? Should we find someone to blame for that? Do we really want to design every facility to the probability of a Cat 5 hurricane? Should we design everything on the coast for a Cat 5 for wind? (155mph sustained = 189 mph 3 second gust)

In recorded history New Orleans has NEVER been hit by a Cat 5. The only one that was close was Camile in 1965. And it was a lot smaller in area. Only 3 Cat 5 hurricanes have made landfall in the US since 1900. And only one hit the Gulf Coast (Katrina). Let's be reasonable and not political.

We are so damned quick to see that if something bad happens, someone has to be responsible. I get so tired of it. We had a VERY unusual and rare storm hit a vulnerable region. I like the responses that offer aid, and what we can do about the situation.

I am doing something about it, and will be in New Orleans in about a week or so. I will keep the offers of assistance that I have received in mind, and if any opportunities arise, I will share them with the list.

Anyone want to take care of my kids while I am gone?

Regards,
Harold Sprague



Charley Hamilton wrote:

> I've heard a statistic like this bandied about several times.  Could
> someone point me at a source?  I'm from New Orleans, and I don't
> recall levees ever being "80% complete".  Levees that are only
> partially complete leak.  ;-)
>
> Regarding overall levee height, that is a different issue.  There was
> a very informative segment with the USACE General for the SE Region
> (I believe) on PBS last night.  He pointed out that the levee risk
> assessment and design were for a Cat 3 hurricane.  This was based on
> acceptable risk levels (Pf = 0.005/year) that were determined in concert
> with the people who held the purse-strings.

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