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RE: Hurricane paths

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Thanks Harold.  I found a web site
http://stormcarib.com/climatology/MBGT_all_isl.htm which lists all
hurricane activity in the area, just what I was looking for.  I wasn't
looking for specific wind speeds, just an indication of activity.

As for the tsunamis, my project is on the north side, directly exposed.
But those islands are so low that a major tsunami could possibly swamp
the whole chain.  I will advise my client to get the study as you
suggest.


Kevin


-----Original Message-----
From: Harold Sprague [mailto:spraguehope(--nospam--at)hotmail.com] 
Sent: 10-Feb-06 12:00
To: seaint(--nospam--at)seaint.org
Subject: RE: Hurricane paths


Kevin,

If you are looking at just a general idea where the hurricane / typhoon 
tracks are located, reference "The Designers Guide to wind Loading of 
Building Structures" Building Research Establishment Report by N. J.
Cook, 
page 122.  These are maps showing prevailing storm tracks and frequency.

If you want something more definitive use HURISK available through the 
National Hurricane Center.

I will add my usual cautionary note about the wind velocity basis and 
converting to pressures.  WMO uses 10 minute mean, NWS and ASCE 7 uses 3

second gust, NHC uses 1 minute mean.  Know what the velocity basis is
and 
convert wind velocities to 3 second gust to determine wind pressures per
the 
ASCE 7-05.

Tsunami mapping studies are in their infancy.  You need to look at the 
proximity of subduction zone faults.  The Pacific rim has many
subduction 
zone areas.  Subduction earthquakes in Japan have caused tsunamis in
Orgon 
according to paleotechtonic studies.  The Carribean also has subduction 
zones with tsunami potential and history, but they are much fewer.
Coral 
reefs can exacerbate tsunami effect.

Walls to mitigate tsunamis are very formidable and expensive.  The
Japanese 
have constructed some on the northeast side.  The best approach is to
have a 
seismic hazard analysis performed to include tsunami effect.  You can
get 
some maps and look at the proximity of subduction zones to see if there
is 
an exposure.  If so get the assessment to determine wave run up.  And do
not 
build in that zone.

North and East of the Turks and Caicos Islands there is a subduction
zone 
fault.  If your project is on the north or east shore, definatly get the

study.  If your project is on the south or west side, the risk should be

greatly reduced.

Regards,
Harold Sprague





>From: Kevin Below <kevinbelow(--nospam--at)videotron.ca>
>Reply-To: <seaint(--nospam--at)seaint.org>
>To: seaint(--nospam--at)seaint.org
>Subject: Hurricane paths
>Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 22:53:45 -0500
>
>Copuld anyone point me to a source for historical hurricane path traces

>for the Caribbean area ?
>
>A client and friend is planning a project in the Turks and Caicos 
>Islands, and I would like to give him some info on the hurricane risk.
>
>Also, global warming is projected by some to cause sea levels to rise 
>by several metres over the next 100 years.  That would put a lot of 
>projects in the islands under water.  I wouldn't want to be building a 
>beach resort in the low-lying islands if that turns out to be true. 
>Anyone know of a good source for this sort of info ?
>
>Then how about tsunamis.  A 5 metre wave would swamp this resort like 
>it did in Phuket, unless the coral reef wall stops it before it runs up

>the beach, and I suspect it would reflect or absorb it if the wall is 
>nearly vertical.  Does anyone know of tsunami effects on islands 
>surrounded by a coral reef ?  Were there any examples in December 2004 
>?
>
>Many thanks for any contributions,
>
>
>Kevin Below
>
>
>
>
>
>--
>No virus found in this outgoing message.
>Checked by AVG Free Edition.
>Version: 7.1.375 / Virus Database: 267.15.4/255 - Release Date: 
>2006-02-09
>

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