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Re: Snow Load + Seismic

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In a message dated 7/22/06 10:22:58 PM, ad026(--nospam--at)hwcn.org writes:
Is it reasonable to assume the maximum snow gravity effect (1 in 50 yr),
as either gravity mass or horizontal inertial mass, to occur at the same
time as the maximum seismic effect (1 in 500 yr)? Doesn't this blow the
statistical basis into microscopically small probability ranges?

Knowing nothing of statistical theory I've always wondered how the wind managed to be strong enough, for a long enough time, precisely aligned with the very long and narrow Hood Canal, right at low tide ... to sink the Hood Canal Floating Bridge (in Washington State, in the early 1970s).  My understanding is that without all of those factors it wouldn't have failed.  I can just picture the original designers saying "What are the chances of all that happening simultaneously -- nil."  But I'll bet the designers of the planned new bridge will!

Just my 2 cents, as they say.

Ralph Hueston Kratz, S.E.
Richmond CA USA